A disciplined score built from seven evidence points.
The model compares speed, class, recent form, ratings, conditions, connections and race setup before risk penalties are applied.
Speed-rating advantage
Relevant recent figures are compared with the next-best runner, with preference given to the same surface, similar ground and a comparable distance.
Class movement
Horses dropping into weaker company receive extra credit, while substantial rises in grade reduce confidence.
Last-four-run form
The most recent run receives the greatest weight. Race comments are reviewed so a troubled run is not treated like an ordinary defeat.
Overall ratings
Weight-adjusted ratings are compared across credible sources rather than relying on one number.
Course, distance and going
Proven suitability matters, particularly at specialist tracks and under more extreme ground conditions.
Jockey and trainer
Course records, current stable form and partnership performance are considered with sensible sample sizes.
Race setup
Draw, likely pace and running style are assessed before race-risk penalties are applied.